September 16, 2008 <—– Today’s Date ————-
Obama: 247 McCain: 257 Ties: 34
Now the purpose isn’t to endorse one candidate over another, or to brag or boost confidence or anything like that. The purpose of this post is to show very unusual, unprecedented polling trends in this election cycle. All the information from this post is based on information from Electoral-Vote.com, an independent group that monitors polls and trends over the course of an election cycle.
New York
The first point of interest I would like to point out lies in the northeast, actually the state of New York. Home of Sen. Hillary Clinton who was defeated earlier this year in the primary season after a very nasty mud filled campaign.
The graph you see above is from New Yorks latest poll, taken September 10. It shows front runner Barack Obama standing at 46% to John McCain’s 41% which is just barely outside the margin of error. Now for you guys to ask the “why is this significant” question. Take these number and compare it to the last four presidential elections.
Year: Dem – Rep – Difference
2004: Kerry 58% – Bush 41% – 17%
2000: Gore 60% – Bush 35% – 25%
1996: Clinton – 58% – Dole 30% – 38%
1992: Clinton 47% – Bush 29% – 18%
Again, this year as of right now, there is only a difference of 5% points. This is extremely remarkable for a Republican, in what has traditionally been a Democrat stronghold.
Indiana
The Chicago media outlet is defiantly influencing some across the boarder to their east. I’m talking about you Indiana. The traditional Republican stronghold is taking a hit this year with front runner John McCain at 45% to Barack Obama’s 43% defiantly within the margin of error (based on a poll taken August 30, the most recent for this battleground state).
From the present numbers to the historical numbers.
Year – Dem – Rep – Difference
2004: Kerry 39% – Bush 60% – 21%
2000: Gore 41% – Bush 57% – 16%
1996: Clinton 42% – Dole 47% – 5%
1992: Clinton 37% – Bush 42% – 5%
Now these number show, that yes Indiana was a battleground state during the 90’s, but a rapid decline of Republican support during the last 4 years.
Minnesota
A 90’s Democratic stronghold turned 2000’s battleground. As of the most recent poll taken September 12, these are the numbers. Front runner Barack Obama at 47% to John McCain at 46%, another nail biter.
To the historical numbers.
Year – Dem – Rep – Difference
2004: Kerry 51% – Bush 48% – 3%
2000: Gore 48% – Bush 46% – 2%
1996: Clinton 51% – Dole 35% – 16%
1992: Clinton 44% – Bush 32% – 12%
Republicans are closing the gap, but that doesn’t mean the Dem’s aren’t putting up a fight.
Virginia
Without a doubt this is going to be a big prize for whoever wins it. If you look at the graph below, Virginians are probably the most undecided voters in the country. The most recent poll taken on September 14 shows the candidates dead even at 48%.
To the historical numbers.
Year – Dem – Rep – Difference
2004: Kerry 45% – Bush 54% – 9%
2000: Gore 45% – Bush 53% – 8%
1996: Clinton 45% – Dole 47% – 2%
1992: Clinton 41% – Bush 45% – 4%
Virginia will most likely be a main focus for both candidates, and probably won’t decided until election day.
Washington
The traditional Democratic stronghold numbers come from most recent poll on September 10, and the numbers are as follows: Barack Obama at 48% compared to John McCain at 44%. Just outside the margin of error. However there is a somewhat conservative appeal in Washington.
To the historical numbers.
Year – Dem – Rep – Difference
2004: Kerry 53% – Bush 46% – 7%
2000: Gore 50% – Bush 45% – 5%
1996: Clinton 50% – Dole 37% – 13%
1992: Clinton 43% – Bush 32% – 11%
The state seems to be turning purple. But in all honesty I would expect it to stay blue this election.
Detour to Southwest
Although this is a little unusual, Colorado and New Mexico each have changed since previous elections, costing the Republicans only a projected 4 electoral votes. However both states contests fall within the margin of error. Colorado (September 14 poll) stands at Barack Obama 48% to John McCain 47%, while New Mexico (September 8 poll) stands at John McCain 49% to Barack Obama 47%.
Note:
Unfortunately during the time of my writing the effects of yesterday’s Dow Jones 504 point tumble have not had time to trickle into polls, so please pay attention as these numbers should be expected to shift, one way or another.
A few quick things. As a (former) Washingtonian, I can safely say that that state will go blue this fall without question. The western side of the state easily outnumbers the eastern side which is more rural and farmland, very similar to the flyover country that Republicans use to rack up small but important votes in the electoral college. I’m guessing that the wavering was from the Palin bump which might’ve pushed a few indies over but I honestly can’t see that trend lasting for too much longer.
I really like these types of maps as they’re much more indicative of the way the election will work out because it’s based on the electoral college and not populace opinion. But like you noted at the end, this sudden collapse in the banking system is going to push these numbers one way or another, and on top of that, McCain/Palin have had a rough start to the week, what with the “McCain invented the Blackberry” comment and the “Palin (and then later all of the candidates) isn’t qualified to run a corporation” statement. And looking at a CBS poll and it’s internals, there seems to be some indication that in specific issues, McCain and Palin are either falling or are going to have to fight hard to keep their position.
Either way, it’s going to be difficult to get some more solid numbers because we’re hitting the debate season in a little over a week which is going to be hard to gauge because by the time the numbers are in from the first debate, we’ll have more lined up. This will definitely be a tight election and I’m tempted to say that Virginia and Pennsylvania will be the battleground states as the typical battlegrounds (Florida, Ohio, etc.) seemed to have gone to McCain. But after watching this election season, making predictions is a futile effort.
Comment by Max — September 18, 2008 @ 5:44 AM
Again, I think you missed the overall point of this post, or I didn’t articulate it particularly well. Probably a combination of the two. I didn’t necessarily mean to use number to predict this coming election, what I meant to do was show a change in some states or regions. For instance, one state that I left out of this post was Illinois, my home state, while it has always been a blue state (in Presidential terms), the last couple of cycles it was more purple, but while comparing the number of the last couple of cycles, IL is without a doubt becoming a Democratic powerhouse.
Returning to your comment about Washington, again I predict it to stay blue, but say if these trends are to continue, I could see within the next 8-12 years that it may change. On the West coast it would be unusual to see this type of change, but Washington and Oregon both have has some interesting shifting.
When it comes to states like Indiana, Ohio, and Pennsylvania I think these are without a doubt going to be battle grounds for quite awhile. Purely looking at regions and geography, Democratic states are grouped in clusters, same for Republican states. The instance of these three states, however, are a political “No Man’s Land” they’re caught right in the middle of everything.
For instance, I think going back to the mid-west Democrats are starting to appeal to like you say “fly-over” citizenry. This explains Minnesota, Iowa, and Reddish-Purplish Missouri. As for Wisconsin, well that’s one confusing state.
Todays Numbers:
McCain: 274
Obama: 243
Ties: 21 (Pennsylvania)
Comment by genuistim — September 18, 2008 @ 6:59 PM
I still can’t see Washington ever going beyond a Lean Democrat rating, mainly because the west side (the blue side) outnumbers the eastern side (the reddish side) by such a large amount that every one of them could vote Republican and it still probably wouldn’t go beyond a 55-45 split.
I’ll be pretty much ignoring the numbers for the next few days as this economic problem begins to trickle down. On top of that I’ve been looking over the internals of a recent CBS poll (about two days old I think) and Palin’s favorabl/unfavorable numbers have been slipping lately with a net loss of 10 points since polling began on her, that’s way down from when she was sitting somewhere near a +20 spread at one point.
Comment by Max — September 19, 2008 @ 3:02 AM